The United States risks a critical shortage of experts who truly understand China firsthand, a new report warned on Monday, as US funding cuts, security fears and university restrictions have slashed the number of US students in the country to fewer than 2,000.

"America needs a deep pool of expertise that understands China from both the 'outside-in' and the 'inside-out'. In-depth, on-the-ground exposure to the People's Republic of China is especially important in this era of growing security, economic, and soft power friction between the United States and China," David Lampton of Johns Hopkins University said at the report launch in Washington.

Lampton, chair of the expert working group "Investing in Deeper American Understanding of China" and Hyman Professor Emeritus at the university's School of Advanced International Studies, noted that today's specialists with deep in-country experience are retiring without replacement.

The report, "America's China Talent Challenge: Investing in Deeper American Understanding of China", released by the US-China Education Trust, shows that US students studying for academic credits in China dropped from about 15,000 a decade ago to roughly 2,000 now, mostly in short-term undergraduate programs.

The report illustrates a sharp decline after 2019, reaching a low of about 350 during the pandemic, followed by a modest recovery.

Madelyn Ross, former US-China Education Trust president and senior adviser to the group, highlighted how federal programs that once supported serious study in China have disappeared.

"Many US government programs that traditionally provided opportunities and funding for study in China were closed during the pandemic and currently remain suspended or closed, at least for use in the PRC," she said.

Mark Lambert, a career diplomat who served as State Department China Coordinator until January 2025, described the result as "knowledge imbalance".

"Right now, there are over a quarter of a million Chinese studying in the United States," he said. "That means that compared to that huge pool, we have a tiny little puddle of 2,000 Americans studying in the PRC."

He warned that this gap increases the chance of miscalculation in the years to come.

Major driver

Neysun Mahboubi, director of the Penn Project on the Future of US-China Relations, pointed to US domestic pressures as a major driver.

University research security rules aimed at protecting STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) fields have spilled over, leading many institutions, especially public universities, to limit engagement with China.

Lampton linked US policy choices directly to the talent pipeline crisis. "Federal funding for China-focused study has declined sharply, and many long-standing exchange programs have been suspended," he said.

He added that many US academic centers and joint campuses in China now face pressure to downsize or close.

The report ties these US actions to immediate negative impacts on competitiveness.

Federal agencies that need China expertise, from the State and Treasury departments to the intelligence community and Pentagon, are finding it harder to recruit.

"American students and scholars are deterred from studying in China because of a widespread perception that such experience will prevent them from obtaining a security clearance for a US government job in the future," the report said.

Meanwhile, recent US visa scrutiny for Chinese and international students has tightened overall exchanges. In September, US President Donald Trump indicated a desire to increase the number of Chinese students, despite the reviews.

Ross called for concrete restoration of US-funded pathways. "We recommend the restoration of federal funding and opportunities for Chinese-specific language and research provided by the US Departments of State and Education for study in the PRC. These programs have been a foundation of American expertise on China for decades," she said.

"There needs to be a clear signal from the administration that supports educational exchanges, particularly those in the social sciences. That this is in our national interest," Lambert said.

Lampton added that the report focuses on actions the United States can take to rebuild the pipeline.

"Strengthening the pipeline of America's China experts will ensure that they continue to play critical roles in managing bilateral relations and helping to reduce misunderstandings across the expanse of US-China interactions," Lampton concluded.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com