The number of Canadians traveling to the United States has declined steadily since early 2025, as political tensions, economic pressures and shifting consumer behavior reshape cross-border travel, according to experts and industry data.

A Statistics Canada report released on March 10 said Canadian residents' return trips from the US totaled 1.5 million in February, down 14.5 percent from a year earlier.

Compared with February 2024, before trade tensions escalated in early 2025, the decline was even sharper at 31.5 percent.

"The trend that started in winter 2025 has strengthened over the months and continues in 2026," said Frederic Dimanche, a professor at the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Toronto Metropolitan University.

He told China Daily that multiple factors are at play, but political developments have been central. Canadians are "upset with Donald Trump's attitude toward Canada," he said, citing "ongoing references to making Canada the 51st state" as well as economic measures.

Broader international issues have also weighed on perceptions of the United States, Dimanche added, noting that "the recent outrage against ICE and the war in the Middle East did not help the country's reputation".

Economic considerations, including currency fluctuations, are also contributing to the decline. "Some will argue that the exchange rate is another reason for avoiding the USA," he said.

Still, Dimanche said that political factors remain decisive. "These are the most important factors. People are very sensitive to the way the US has treated Canada politically and economically," he said.

The drop in Canadian visitors is already being felt across the United States, particularly in regions that rely heavily on cross-border travel.

"The US is the only country to have experienced a decline in international visitors in 2025," he said, adding that the Canadian market — the largest source of international visitors — "is responsible for a great part of this decline".

Border states have been hit especially hard. "Some states, particularly those across the border, have been very affected by the lack of Canadian travelers. They experienced declines of over 30 percent in their tourism sector," he said.

Economic conditions are also shaping travel decisions, said Isabelle Salle, a professor of behavioral macroeconomics at the University of Ottawa.

"The decline in Canadians traveling to the US is best understood as a combination of economic constraints and shifting preferences, rather than a single-factor story," she told China Daily.

"A central driver is the depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar," which "directly increases the cost of travel, accommodation, and consumption in the US", she said.

Beyond costs, sentiment and perception are also influencing behavior.

"There is some evidence of virtue signaling or identity-driven consumption choices in travel decisions," Salle said.

Industry figures show that Canadians are not giving up travel, but are changing their patterns.

"Canadians aren't traveling less — they're traveling differently," Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, told China Daily.

Instead, travelers are redirecting their spending. "Within Canada, 37 percent of Canadians rank domestic travel as their top choice for 2026," she said, while "Europe (25 percent) and Asia (9 percent) are seeing strong interest".