The Philippines' recent statements and actions regarding the South China Sea are likely to hinder efforts toward resolution, while its attempts to amplify the issue and draw in outside actors risk further undermining regional peace and stability, experts said.

On March 7, a Philippine Coast Guard reconnaissance aircraft carrying journalists was reportedly warned off by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy ships via radio communications during its patrol near Huangyan Dao.

The Philippines said on Monday it rejected Beijing's claim of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, asserting that it possesses "indivisible, incontrovertible, and long-standing sovereignty" over Huangyan Dao.

The Philippine Coast Guard also said it would carry out more patrols in the South China Sea and counter what it describes as "China's bullying".

Jiang Bin, spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defense, said on Wednesday that China has indisputable sovereignty over Nanhai Zhudao (South China Sea islands), including Huangyan Dao and their adjacent waters.

"Taking journalists on board during its so-called patrol missions to film videos and play up the 'victim's narrative' has become the not-so-surprising playbook for the Philippine side. The so-called transparency and exposure campaign is not about uncovering the truth to the world, but a self-directed farce," Jiang said.

"We will continue to take effective countermeasures in response to all rights violations and provocations," he said.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is stepping up cooperation with Japan in an effort to "deter" China in the South China Sea, said a report published by The Diplomat magazine.

The Reciprocal Access Agreement, which entered into force in September 2025, and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement signed in January allow Japanese and Philippine forces to operate more easily in each other's territory and share logistics support.

The two countries have also expanded joint exercises. Their navies have taken part in Maritime Cooperative Activities alongside the United States and other partners, while the coast guards of Japan, the Philippines, and the US conducted their first trilateral exercise in 2023. In 2024, Japan and the Philippines held their first bilateral maritime exercise in the South China Sea.

External powers

Chen Hong, director of the East China Normal University's Asia Pacific Studies Center in Shanghai, said that the Philippines appears to be escalating the South China Sea issue by seeking support from other countries, with the aim of forming a broader coalition to counter China.

"The Philippines is seeking to align itself with the US 'Indo-Pacific Strategy', relying on non-regional powers such as the US and Japan to generate external pressure in negotiations over the territorial issue," he said.

Chen said this approach risks drawing the Philippines into the framework of great-power competition, thereby weakening its strategic autonomy.

Japan has been expanding its military presence in Southeast Asia and has sought to elevate the South China Sea issue, using it as a strategic lever to counter China, said Liu Shuliang, an associate researcher at the Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences.

Japan's continued involvement in the South China Sea through enhanced security cooperation with the Philippines reflects two key objectives: expanding its military presence in the Asia Pacific to ease constitutional constraints on military development, and aligning with the US to build a network aimed at countering China, he said.

He said that the growing military presence of external powers is likely to generate negative consequences.

"Intensified military activities, such as joint exercises and fighter patrols, will heighten the risk of unintended encounters and miscalculations. This could trigger a regional arms race, increasing defense spending and reinforcing a 'security dilemma' that threatens stability," Liu said.

He noted that this year marks a critical moment for negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

"Regional countries should seize the opportunity to expedite talks, resist external interference, and help to resolve disputes and maintain peace and stability," Liu said.

Agencies contributed to this story.