Canada's efforts to secure the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact come as shifting political signals over the Iran conflict risk complicating an already delicate round of negotiations with the United States, experts say.

Earlier this month, the Carney government appointed a new chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, and dispatched her to Washington for high-level talks with the United States ahead of the July USMCA review.

The visit also includes easing tariff pressures and sounding out positions on sensitive issues such as dairy market access and auto rules of origin.

Kim Richard Nossal, a professor emeritus of political studies at Queen's University, said Canada's primary objective is clear.

"The main objective that Janice Charette will work towards will be to secure an extension to the USMCA for another 16 years, to 2042," he told China Daily.

Failure to do so could introduce significant uncertainty, Nossal said.

He said if the agreement is not renewed, it would still remain in force until 2036 but face annual reviews, creating instability and opening the door for new US demands on "contentious issues, such as supply management, digital service tax and automotive rules of origin."

In the worst-case scenario, Nossal noted, Washington could withdraw entirely — "which can be done with six months' notice."

Against this backdrop, geopolitical tensions may weigh on negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney initially expressed support for US strikes on Iran but later emphasized diplomacy and de-escalation.

Nossal said such shifts could matter because the current US administration does not separate trade from politics.

"Absolutely this is a possibility," he said, referring to whether Washington links political alignment with economic cooperation.

"Trump's reaction to the Spanish prime minister's criticism and policy — threatening to halt all trade with Spain — demonstrates that he does not — and will not — separate trade from politics," he said.

That dynamic, he added, helps explain Ottawa's careful messaging on sensitive international issues.

"The fear that USMCA will be affected by other issues is one of the reasons why the Carney government has been very careful not to criticize the US openly on a range of issues," he said, including conflicts in the Caribbean, Venezuela and Iran.

While Canada has sought to diversify its trade relationships, including outreach to Asia and other partners, Nossal said such efforts have limits when it comes to negotiations with Washington.

Efforts to expand ties with countries such as India or the Gulf states "provide confidence," he said, reflecting Ottawa's view that the "old" relationship with the United States is "over" and that Canada must reduce its dependence.

Radhika Desai, a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said Canada's recent push to deepen trade ties with partners beyond the United States reflects mounting pressure on Ottawa to reduce its economic dependence on its southern neighbor.

"It is a sign of the tremendous pressure Canada is under.

"The government and the prime minister, who have spent decades fostering a close relationship with the United States, are now pursuing initiatives to diversify trade," she told China Daily.

Canada faces significant structural constraints in that effort, she added.

"They have an uphill climb, given the degree of Canadian trade reliance on the US. They have a mountain to move before they can reduce that reliance to a level that gives Canada meaningful policy autonomy," she said.

The shift in Canada's trade strategy is closely tied to uncertainty surrounding US economic and foreign policy under US President Donald Trump, Desai said.

"It is entirely due to the unpredictability of the Trump administration," she said.

However, she said that the volatility cannot be explained simply by Trump's personal style.

"That unpredictability is not linked to Donald Trump's personality. Rather, it emerges from the structural compulsions of the crisis of the US economy, society and politics," she said.

Such structural pressures, she said, may have long-term implications for the global economic system itself.

"If more Western economies start pursuing independent trade and investment strategies," she said, "it will no longer be US led."

Desai said many Canadian elites would prefer the current diversification push to remain temporary.

"I have no doubt that Canada's economic and political elites wish" that the strategy is only a short-term response to US uncertainty, she said.