Policies deliver robust roadmap for growth
Editor's Note: As China launches its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), policymakers are strengthening coordination between the "Export to China" and "Shopping in China" campaigns. The effort signals a clear commitment to expanding imports while promoting high-quality consumption. To explore what this means for global business, we invited executives from multinational corporations to share their perspectives on the opportunities in China's vast market, the role of their China operations in global strategy, and their outlook for the years ahead.
Q1 China's GDP grew 5 percent in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan ($20.31 trillion). For 2026, the government targets growth of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent, with a planned deficit ratio of around 4 percent. How do you assess the credibility and policies backing this target? Amid moderating global demand, what does China's relative growth certainty mean for your company's global capital allocation, earnings outlook and investor expectations? Does the combination of proactive fiscal policies and accommodative monetary measures reinforce your confidence in sustaining or expanding operations in China?
Dreyer: We are confident in the resilience and credibility of China's economic growth. The 2026 target sends a clear signal of macroeconomic stability. Amid moderating global demand and rising uncertainty, China remains a stabilizing force for the world economy.
We see China not only as a significant market for our products, but as a strategic base for innovation and partnership that benefits the entire region. Today, we are migrating from importing technology into China to a net exporter of technology from China to the broader region. This reflects our confidence in China's growth potential and is consistent with the journey China's major original equipment manufacturers are taking. China's growth certainty provides a predictable business environment that reinforces our confidence to sustain and expand our operations across the Asia-Pacific region.
Shih: China's GDP growth target of around 4.5-5 percent for 2026 reflects a prudent and pragmatic policy approach. Amid rising global economic uncertainties, such a target helps provide stable expectations for market participants. In recent years, China has continued to advance high-quality development, with new momentum emerging from expanding domestic demand, technological innovation and industrial upgrading. China's long-term economic resilience and vast market continue to offer significant opportunities for multinational companies. As policies continue to improve and new quality productive forces accelerate, we see growing opportunities in technological innovation, green transition and advanced manufacturing. Through localized innovation and partnerships, we will continue working with Chinese partners to advance smart manufacturing and industrial digitalization, contributing to the high-quality development of the real economy.
Tsao: China's annual growth target reflects a prudent and pragmatic approach amid a global slowdown in demand. Continued efforts to advance the digital economy, artificial intelligence and industrial upgrading also provide clearer expectations for business innovation and investment. For Red Hat, as Chinese enterprises accelerate their digital and AI transformation, demand continues to grow for open, reliable enterprise technology platforms. As a software company built on open source, we remain optimistic about the long-term potential of the China market. We will continue to deepen collaboration with local customers and partners, helping enterprises enhance innovation and business resilience through hybrid cloud and AI technologies.
King: These growth targets are pragmatic, stable and forward-looking, underscoring China's commitment to high-quality development amid global economic uncertainty, while providing a predictable and supportive environment for foreign enterprises. For Treasury Wine Estates, China's steady economic expansion and ongoing consumption upgrading continue to underpin our view of the market's long-term potential.
Q2 In 2025, China's exports rose 6.1 percent, newly established foreign-invested enterprises increased by 19.1 percent, and research and development intensity reached 2.8 percent of GDP. Against the backdrop of global supply chain reconfiguration, is China's role in your global strategy expanding? How do you evaluate China's integrated advantages — manufacturing depth, innovation capacity, infrastructure and market scale — in supporting your production networks and supply resilience? Does China function primarily as a market, a production base, an innovation hub, or increasingly all three within your corporate architecture?
Dreyer: China has evolved from a traditional manufacturing hub into a global innovation powerhouse. For Valvoline, China is more than a key market, it is a comprehensive strategic hub. It plays multiple critical roles in our global portfolio: a world-class production base, an innovation incubator and a large-scale market.
The country's complete and stable industrial system offers efficiency and supply chain resilience. This strength is precisely why we built our plant in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu province — our largest single plant investment to date — which serves as a benchmark for modern, efficient and sustainable manufacturing. Although Valvoline is headquartered in the United States, we view ourselves and our presence in China as though we are a part of the community, and this is backed by our continued investments.
China's innovation density makes our localized R&D center in Shanghai essential to our global network. The solutions we develop here serve the local market and also provide valuable insights for our global portfolio.
Shih: In our view, China offers a well-developed industrial ecosystem and a wide range of application scenarios. Its vast market, comprehensive industrial system and continued commitment to high-level opening-up together provide a solid foundation for companies pursuing long-term development. As the unified national market continues to advance, the more efficient allocation of resources is also helping enhance industrial collaboration across the value chain. Leveraging the country's mature industrial system and diverse market needs, we are able to integrate automation and digital technologies with local demand, working with Chinese partners to support manufacturing upgrading and explore new opportunities for industrial applications and collaboration.
Tsao: The robust growth in new foreign-invested enterprises and R&D investment in 2025 fully validates the enduring appeal of the Chinese market. Amid the accelerating restructuring of global supply chains, China's combined strengths in manufacturing capability, innovation ecosystems, and market scale remain highly significant. For Red Hat, China is not only an important market, but also a vibrant ecosystem for enterprise digital transformation and AI innovation. Increasing R&D investment and active industrial innovation continue to provide fertile ground for the development of open source technologies and enterprise platforms.
King: China has always been one of Treasury Wine Estates' key markets, and long-term strategy, strong brand and high-quality products continue to reinforce our long-term presence in China.
China's large consumer base, advanced infrastructure and increasingly vibrant innovation ecosystem provide strong support for our long-term development. Today, China is both a core market and a long-term strategic partner for TWE. We will continue to deepen our localization strategy and further integrate China into our global value chain.
Q3 China is advancing the unified national market, with an urbanization rate of 67.9 percent and total retail sales surpassing 50 trillion yuan. As domestic demand expands, what structural opportunities does this vast, increasingly integrated market present for your portfolio, distribution channels, and localization strategy? Does deeper market unification reduce operational fragmentation and compliance costs? How do you position your brand and product mix to capture demand from both top-tier cities and fast-growing lower-tier markets?
Dreyer: With over 1.4 billion people and a rapidly growing middle-income group, China's mega-market is unique globally. As the unified national market develops, operational fragmentation is reduced and consumption potential is unlocked. For a 160-year-old brand like Valvoline, this creates significant structural opportunities.
As domestic demand expands and urbanization drives mobility needs, we are advancing our omnichannel strategy. Through partnerships with Chinese digital platforms, we have built a seamless online-to-offline service network. This data-driven approach allows us to efficiently capture demand across the country — from major cities to fast-growing lower-tier markets.
This multitiered market enables us to deploy comprehensive, fuel-agnostic solutions. We serve the internal combustion engine after-market, while also addressing the EV segment with our advanced thermal management and drive-line fluids. This ensures quality vehicle maintenance is accessible to consumers regardless of location.
Shih: As China continues to advance the development of a unified national market and unlock domestic demand potential, the scale advantages of its market are creating broader application scenarios for advanced manufacturing and industrial upgrading. In response, Rockwell integrates its global automation and digitalization capabilities with local needs. Through our continued engagement in China, we focus on real industrial and societal needs, applying technologies to address practical challenges and create lasting value. For example, in urban renewal projects, Rockwell has supported the deployment of smart and green automated parking solutions to help address parking shortages in dense city districts and improve space utilization. Looking ahead, we will continue expanding the application of advanced solutions across more industrial scenarios to capture the opportunities created by China's unified national market and growing domestic demand.
Tsao: For Red Hat, China's vast market and rising urbanization mean continued demand across industries for stable, open and scalable enterprise technology platforms. In recent years, Red Hat has further deepened its presence in China, expanding into cities such as Chengdu, Sichuan province, and Wuhan, Hubei province, while strengthening collaboration with local partners and developer communities. Through open hybrid cloud and AI platforms, we help enterprises accelerate innovation and business transformation, while continuing to advance our long-term investment and localization efforts in China.
King: First, its super-large market and evolving consumer preferences continue to create growth space for high-end products. China has become a key global market for premium products. The enduring strength of the brand of Treasury Wine Estates and Penfolds, together with a growing base of progressive consumers in China, continue to support our development and innovation.
Q4 China's trade-in program generated over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales in 2025, alongside the "Shopping in China" and "Export to China" initiatives. China's exports grew 6.1 percent year-on-year. How is your company aligning its China strategy to capture both domestic consumption upgrades and export-oriented opportunities? Do you see China increasingly as a global production and innovation base serving international markets? How are you balancing local demand expansion with China's role in your global export ecosystem?
Dreyer: China's trade-in programs act as a catalyst for the automotive after-market. They accelerate vehicle upgrades and increase consumer willingness to invest in quality maintenance. We are capturing this domestic consumption upgrade by offering tailored solutions that extend engine life and support new energy vehicles.
We also leverage China as a hub for our global operations. We don't just export products, we globalize local partnerships. By collaborating with leading Chinese OEMs, we support their overseas expansion strategies and supply our products to international markets.
Shih: China is promoting high-quality development by advancing consumption growth while maintaining stable foreign trade. This approach is creating new opportunities for companies to connect domestic market growth with global collaboration. Building on this, Rockwell works to meet local market demand in China while also supporting Chinese companies in expanding into overseas markets. Rockwell's lifecycle services cover early-stage consulting, operational and technical support, as well as after-sales services, helping Chinese enterprises achieve efficient deployment and stable operations in overseas markets. Going forward, Rockwell will continue to leverage its global network and technological expertise to expand the application of smart manufacturing and industrial digitalization across more industrial scenarios, supporting broader value chain collaboration.
Tsao: Red Hat regards the China market as an important hub for innovation and application, while also focusing on the digitalization needs of Chinese enterprises expanding abroad. As a provider of enterprise-grade open source solutions, one of our key strategies is to support Chinese companies going global in building unified and open technology platforms, enabling consistent application deployment, operations management and security governance across different countries and regions. Through hybrid cloud and AI platforms, enterprises can maintain standardized yet flexible technology architectures in multicloud and cross-regional environments, allowing them to expand their global business more efficiently.
King: China has always been one of Treasury Wine Estates' key markets, and we continue to have a long-term presence in China. In 2022, we launched our first China-made wine, One by Penfolds, followed by CWT 521 in 2023 — the first Chinese wine to join the Penfolds Collection. In 2025, we completed the acquisition of the Stone& Moon Winery in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region, which is a major step in our goal to promote high-quality Chinese wines globally while deepening Penfolds' roots in China.
With China advancing high-level opening-up and building a unified national market, a more transparent, stable and predictable business environment provides stronger certainty for foreign businesses.
Q5 China last year reduced energy intensity by 5.1 percent, raised the nonfossil energy share to 21.7 percent, and expanded new-type energy storage capacity beyond 130 gigawatts. Artificial intelligence and advanced technologies remain at the forefront globally. Where do you see the strongest partnership potential in China's green transition and AI-driven industrial upgrading? Are you expanding investment in renewables, digitalization, smart manufacturing, or carbon management solutions? How central is China to your global sustainability roadmap and next-generation technology deployment?
Dreyer: China's progress in reducing energy intensity and expanding energy storage aligns with Valvoline's global sustainability roadmap and our commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. China's focus on new quality productive forces makes it a key partner for our next-generation technology development — innovations that we can deploy across the Asia-Pacific region and global markets.
We are delivering solutions that meet stringent local standards. Together with our parent company Aramco, we are also developing lubricants for hydrogen internal combustion engines, supporting sustainable mobility across the region.
Aligning with the growth of the digital economy across the Asia-Pacific region, we are extending our thermal management expertise beyond automotive into high performance computing and data center applications.
Shih: China's progress in green transition and AI applications is creating new opportunities for industrial collaboration. In the area of green transition, Rockwell is working with partners to explore integrated low-carbon solutions through automation and digital technologies. For example, by integrating technologies such as AI, 5G and digital twins, Rockwell's FIRST (financial service, industrial upgrading, resilient O&M service, social development and technological innovation) solution for zero-carbon smart parks supports parks in their transition toward carbon-neutral operations. In the area of AI applications, Rockwell has applied AI and big data to help Taiyuan Heavy Industry Railway Transit Equipment Co build a lighthouse factory, enabling data-driven optimization.
Tsao: Red Hat has been in China for 22 years, providing open-source technology services and support to tens of thousands of enterprises. In AI innovation, Red Hat is actively collaborating with China's local ecosystem. Recently, we launched the MXAIE solution with MetaX, combining Red Hat's open-source platform capabilities with Chinese high-performance GPU technologies to accelerate AI adoption from lab environments to large-scale production. Looking ahead, sectors such as new energy, digitalization and intelligent manufacturing hold tremendous potential. Red Hat will continue investing in these key industries, enabling enterprises to enhance efficiency, resilience and innovation through open hybrid cloud and AI platforms.
King: China's progress in reducing energy intensity, increasing nonfossil energy share and expanding new-type energy storage provides an opportunity to partner on sustainability efforts. Under our vision to "Cultivate a Brighter Future", building a resilient and sustainable business remains a long-term focus. TWE implements responsible production practices across the entire value chain. We are committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2030 and now operate on 100 percent renewable electricity globally. This strategy aligns closely with China's national priorities, including the 2060 carbon neutrality commitment, the Healthy China 2030 initiative and rural vitalization.
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