China’s 2026 two sessions have an important bearing on the future of the Global South

As the world grapples with a slowdown in multilateral cooperation and growing economic fragmentation, the Global South is increasingly searching for policy anchors that offer predictability, scale and development continuity. In 2026, China’s two sessions arrived at precisely such a moment, not merely as a domestic political milestone, but as a bellwether for South-South economic coordination in an unsettled global landscape.

The 2026 two sessions — the annual meetings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — which opened on March 4 and 5, carried exceptional weight. Beyond their regular legislative and consultative functions, this year’s sessions mark the formal start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a planning period expected to define China’s development engagement with the Global South for the rest of the decade.

Understanding the two sessions requires both a backward look at China’s planning tradition and a forward look at how early policy signals shape global expectations, particularly for countries in the Global South that are deeply connected to China through trade, investment and infrastructure networks.

China’s five-year plans have been a core feature of its governance since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Over time, these plans have evolved from rigid central mandates to coordination architectures that link fiscal policy, investment strategy, regulatory reform and international economic engagement. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) underscored this evolution by emphasizing innovation, structural transformation and deeper integration into global markets.

Official data show that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s GDP trajectory remained resilient, with strong contributions to global growth even amid the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical headwinds. China accounted for roughly 30 percent of global economic growth annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reflecting its weight in the world economy, and its share of the world economy expanded from about 11 percent in 2012 to about 17 percent by 2025.

Foreign trade continued to dominate China’s external engagement, with exports and imports maintaining a robust presence in global goods markets and its trade in services surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Investments by foreign companies in China also exceeded $700 billion during the period, beating official targets ahead of schedule.

China’s five-year plans also support incremental opening-up measures, such as expanding pilot free trade zones, broadening market access for foreign investment and liberalizing customs procedures, which have reinforced China’s integration into global value chains and facilitated smoother flows of goods, capital and services. The preparatory recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan reiterate many of these themes such as innovation, resilience, balanced growth and technological competitiveness, while aiming to equip China with a strategic posture calibrated for a more fragmented global environment.

The two sessions provide two critical public policy signals. First, through the Government Work Report, China’s leadership sets near-term economic targets, budget priorities, regulatory emphasis and social service commitments. Second, the two sessions’ discussions and resolutions influence investor expectations and partner country planning, often well before the finalized Five-Year Plan is released.

In 2026, global economic conditions remain complex. Protectionist currents remain strong, the United States and the European Union are recalibrating their trade relationships with China, and global supply chains continue to adjust to geopolitical pressures. In this context, China’s domestic policy stance, whether emphasizing export support, domestic consumption, technological development or resilience, will ripple outward.

For example, China maintained an annual GDP growth rate of 5 percent in 2025, despite headwinds such as the less than optimum domestic consumption and continued trade tensions resulting from tariff regimes. Strong exports and industrial output were central to this outcome, even as fixed-asset investment and property investment contracted. Economists have pointed out that this performance underscores the challenge China faces in balancing domestic demand with continued outward economic engagement.

Those early policy choices, visible in the Government Work Report, help the country’s partners anticipate whether China will reinforce its export-oriented approach, stimulate domestic consumption, and deepen cooperation in emerging sectors such as green technology and digital connectivity.

Ultimately, China’s policy orientations have significant implications for the Global South. The country has become a central trading partner for many developing economies. In 2024, the China-Africa trade volume reached approximately $295.6 billion, a record high, with preliminary 2025 figures showing continued activity. China has extended zero tariff treatment on all tariff lines to the least developed countries with which it has diplomatic ties, expanding export opportunities for African producers. China has also signed economic partnership frameworks with over 20 African countries and increased trade financing to promote exports into China.

The Belt and Road Initiative has been a flagship mechanism for physical connectivity and economic cooperation between China and Global South partners. The initiative encompasses more than 150 countries and aims to enhance regional infrastructure, reduce trade costs and improve connectivity. World Bank research estimates that the BRI could boost trade flows for participating countries by an average of 4.1 percent, lowering global trade frictions and generating broader economic gains for developing regions.

In practical terms, infrastructure projects facilitated or financed with Chinese participation have transformed connectivity across Africa. Data show that China has supported the construction and upgrading of over 10,000 kilometers of railways, nearly 100,000 km of roads, and more than 200,000 km of fiber-optic cable on the continent, expanding regional industrial corridors and digital infrastructure.

China’s engagement also extends beyond heavy infrastructure. Agricultural cooperation such as the spread of Chinese agricultural technology and Juncao cultivation methods has improved crop yields and income for smallholder farmers, illustrating how technology transfer can resonate at the community level.

Partnerships established during the 14th Five-Year Plan period have laid a foundation that many developing countries now depend on for trade diversification, industrial capacity building and energy and digital connectivity. These forms of cooperation were visible well before the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan and will be reflected in how the 15th Five-Year Plan is ultimately articulated.

The two sessions provide early policy signals that shape global economic forecasts, investor strategies and partner countries’ planning cycles. For Global South governments, business leaders and multilateral institutions, understanding China’s near-term priorities — contained in the Government Work Report — is essential to aligning cooperation frameworks, investment planning and trade strategies with how China perceives the economic landscape.

The two sessions remain critical precisely because they combine domestic priorities with international economic forecasting. Past cycles have shown that policy declarations at this stage, particularly those around infrastructure financing, market openness, consumption support and innovation, directly influence planning horizons across Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The author is the executive director of South-South Dialogues, a Nairobi-based communications development think tank.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.