The recent surge in tomato prices in China was mainly due to the impact of unfavorable weather earlier in the season and tight supplies during the peak marketing period, experts said. Prices have started to ease slightly in mid-January and are likely to see a seasonal decline after the Spring Festival holiday in mid-February.

Tomato prices witnessed a sharp rise in recent weeks. By late December, prices in many Beijing supermarkets were approaching 20 yuan ($2.87) per kilogram, with some varieties priced even higher.

Data from the Xinfadi wholesale market in the capital showed that on Dec 30, the average wholesale price of boxed tomatoes reached 6.7 yuan per kg, up 168 percent from 2.5 yuan a year earlier.

The nationwide average wholesale tomato price reached 8.59 yuan per kg in December, up 23.4 percent from the previous month and 76.4 percent higher than in the previous year. Prices peaked on Dec 26, when the average climbed to 9.36 yuan per kg, according to the monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

"Tomato and scrambled eggs — a classic Chinese homestyle dish — is now made in our canteen with plenty of eggs and few tomatoes," an internet user commented on the social media platform Sina Weibo.

Zhang Jing, a vegetable market analyst with the ministry's agricultural product monitoring team, said tomato prices have remained elevated for some time, mainly due to reduced fruit setting resulting from the prolonged rainy conditions and severe pest diseases.

"These factors tightened supplies during the peak marketing period, and the transition between different producing regions was not smooth," Zhang said.

Favorable weather in early 2025 boosted output, seeing wholesale prices fall to 3.59 yuan per kg, hurting farmers' income expectations and leading many to cut back on autumn plantings.

Adverse weather later led to a direct blow to production and market supply. Excessive rainfall in major vegetable-producing regions in autumn damaged seedlings during the critical transplanting stage, affecting yields and quality. A strong cold air outbreak in mid-October further slowed tomato growth and delayed market arrivals.

Meng Xiangyu, a grower in Liaocheng, Shandong province, said from late September to early October, his tomato production base was hit by continuous rainfall, causing water leakage in some winter greenhouses and delaying tomato planting.

As a result, fruit-setting was pushed back and the marketing schedule was disrupted. "In 2025, I planted more than about 3.3 hectares of tomatoes. The current wholesale price is about 7 yuan per kg, more than three times the usual level," he told Xinhua News Agency.

Additionally, the current tomato market is dominated by greenhouse-grown produce from northern regions such as Shandong and those transported from southern provinces including Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, Zhang said.

As northern open-field production ends in winter, supply relies more on greenhouse cultivation and long-distance transport from southern regions, raising the seasonal costs, she noted.

"However, prices have begun to ease slightly over the past week, though they are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels as consumption typically peaks ahead of Spring Festival," she said, adding that a decline is likely after the holiday.

zhaoyimeng@chinadaily.com.cn