Asia-Pacific economies are heading for stark divergence in 2026, with chipmaking powerhouses poised to capture the rewards of an artificial intelligence frenzy, while weaker exporters face drag from United States tariffs and domestic political turbulence, according to analysts. (Watch video)

The outlook for nations integral to the global AI supply chain — notably South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia — has brightened from soaring demand for advanced semiconductors, with resilient domestic consumption expected to support growth in China, India, Indonesia, and Japan.

However, the picture darkens for Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nepal, and others, with analysts anticipating softening external demand for their non-technology exports and, in some cases, simmering political uncertainty.