Reshaping global market

With total duties reaching 34 percent, including value-added taxes, US soybeans are being priced out of the market, according to a Farmdoc Daily report released by the University of Illinois.

US soybean exports to China fell to zero in June and July, the first time since 2004, according to US Census Bureau data. Through July, US exports declined by 51.3 percent, equivalent to a $2.6 billion loss. Overall agricultural exports to China dropped 53 percent in the first seven months of 2025 compared with 2024, USDA data showed.

Nogueira said China's shift to South American suppliers had reshaped global markets.

"China has been buying a lot more from Brazil and Argentina, and just the way the commodities have been moved around has affected world prices," she said, adding that this creates a "double effect" for US farmers, who lose both their primary market and face depressed global prices.

On Sept 23, Li Chenggang, China international trade representative with the Ministry of Commerce and vice minister of commerce, met a delegation of political and business leaders from the US Midwest. Despite the headwinds in China-US trade, the two sides exchanged views on topics including bilateral economic and trade relations and cooperation at the sub-national level.

After the meeting, Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong said in a statement, "Regarding the trade of soybeans, the United States should take positive action to cancel the relevant unreasonable tariffs to create conditions for expanding bilateral trade."

Cory Walters, an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln who grew up on a Montana farm that produces wheat, canola, barley and peas, told China Daily that during this harvest, farms' profitability "sucks" and may be "negative".

"A lot of farmers typically like to sell soybeans at harvest; they don't like storing them. Now they're forced into selling them at a much lower price than anticipated." Walters said farmers want to point out this is due to the tariffs.

He noted that a strong US dollar exacerbates the issue, as currency exchange rates make US soybeans less competitive, though this is overshadowed by the focus on tariffs and China's pivot to South America.