China's grain consumption is expected to peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030, with steady declines in staple food intake, continued growth in feed grain demand, and robust industrial use, experts said in an analysis of the Rural Development Report (2025) released on Tuesday.

The report, led by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, offers a comprehensive outlook on China's agricultural transformation and rural policy agenda through 2030.

By the end of 2030, China's grain output is forecast to reach 752.4 million metric tons, with cereal production hitting 686.1 million tons and the grain self-sufficiency rate remaining above 95 percent, ensuring national food security.

Alongside food supply, the report highlights sweeping demographic and economic changes reshaping China's countryside. By 2030, the rural population aged 60 and above is projected to account for 28.2 percent of the total — or nearly 394 million people, while the share of employment in agriculture is expected to decline from more than 22 percent in 2024 to 19.5 percent.

Yu Fawen, a researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that while rural living standards have steadily improved, disparities remain between urban and rural areas and within population groups. The challenges of an aging population and depopulation in rural areas remain pressing, Yu said.

According to the report, rural per capita disposable income is expected to reach 34,500 yuan, or about $4,809, by 2030, while urban incomes are projected to average 70,566 yuan, narrowing the urban-rural income ratio to 2.05.

Meanwhile, agricultural productivity is projected to rise sharply, with science and technology contributing 68 percent to growth and the mechanization rate for crop cultivation and harvesting reaching 80 percent.

Chen Bangxun, head of the department of development and planning at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said the shifting demographic structure and improving living standards are having a significant impact on the consumption of agricultural products.

"The consumption of staple food is stabilizing or even slightly declining," Chen said, adding that demand for grain used for animal feed and industrial grain, which is grown and processed for non-food uses, remains strong.

"The coming five years could mark a critical turning point, with overall consumption demand likely to hit its peak," Chen said.

To achieve high-quality and balanced food supply and demand during this period, China will adopt a comprehensive food system that expands the national food strategy beyond grains to include diversified sources such as meat, dairy, aquaculture, and plant-based proteins.

The report calls for building a food supply system aligned with evolving consumption patterns, setting more scientific and reasonable targets for food self-sufficiency, mitigating international supply chain risks for key food categories such as feed grain, and promoting healthy dietary consumption tailored to the nutritional needs of the Chinese population.

zhaoyimeng@chinadaily.com.cn