Strategic communication

Throughout 2024, under the guidance of head-of-state diplomacy, Beijing and Washington held two rounds of strategic communication, and five meetings of the Financial Working Group and the Economic Working Group.

They also co-signed each other's resolution on artificial intelligence at the United Nations General Assembly, feats that show that as long as China and the US cooperate with each other, they can accomplish many great things together, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Dec 17 in Beijing.

Paal said it is difficult to forecast a likely trajectory for China-US relations in 2025, given the differing priorities of the people Trump is assembling for his administration.

He said cultural exchanges and management of trade issues will be the most likely areas of rapprochement, with cooperation being hard, but it could come in public health, environmental protection, space exploration, and other public goods.

Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, cautioned that relations could get "a lot worse" if Trump imposes 60 percent tariffs on all imports from China (plus 100 percent on electric vehicles), and both countries ramp up military engagement.

"Right now, mistrust is extremely high. The way out requires some reduction of tariffs and export controls by both countries, plus a major exchange of sporting and cultural events," Hufbauer said.

The trade expert also noted that China is making good progress on controlling CO2 emissions. Trump doesn't believe in climate change, but many Americans see the danger.

"If China could assist developing countries to build renewable energy plants, that would be a plus. On the diplomatic front, China and the US could cooperate in seeking a de-escalation of military confrontation in the Middle East," he added.

David J. Firestein, another veteran China hand, noted that bilateral efforts to stabilize the relationship have borne some fruit, but with the return of Trump to the White House, the two countries are at an "inflection point".

Firestein, the inaugural president and CEO of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, said that the two countries can learn from the success of coming together, working together, and dealing with each other in a "respectful and businesslike way" — there are areas where they benefit from doing so.

"It's not altruism, it's not charity, it's self-interest that dictates that that's a good thing to do," Firestein told China Daily.