COVID-19 travel restrictions have hit the industry hard, but as the situation eases in many countries, there may now be some light at the end of the tunnel

The future of the travel and tourism industry after COVID-19 is hard to predict.

The pandemic has had a mostly negative impact on the sector, bringing travel and tourism to almost a standstill and leading to millions of jobs lost.

Data from the United Nations World Travel Organization shows that global destinations recorded 147 million fewer international arrivals over the first five months of this year compared with the same period last year, and 460 million fewer than the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, the sector suffered a loss of almost $4.5 trillion last year, with its contribution to global GDP dropping 49 percent compared with 2019.

More than 62 million jobs were lost, leaving just 272 million people employed across the sector.

"Although most countries have seen an improvement in international travel, we are still far from pre-pandemic figures. The mobility restrictions and requirements for travel keep crippling the travel and tourism sector," a council spokesperson said.

"International COVID certificates, such as the EU Digital COVID Certificate, are a step in the right direction, but there needs to be international consensus regarding the implementation of such 'vaccine passports'."

As vaccination programs continue to gain pace around the world and with travel restrictions easing, some in the industry are seeing a slow rebound for the sector, especially through domestic tourism.

"Domestic tourism has certainly improved across the United Kingdom over the summer. In the UK, restrictions were only eased at the start of the summer for domestic tourists, so we have seen the benefit of summer holidays and the release of demand," said Martine Ainsworth-Wells, director of Ainsworth and Wells, an international marketing, communications and brand management consultancy. She noted that inbound and outbound tourism figures remain low due to ongoing restrictions.

"Firstly, there are some people who simply do not want to travel because they are worried about the risk of catching COVID-19. Secondly, there are people who cannot or do not wish to pay for the mandatory pre- and post-departure tests for travel. Thirdly, people are worried that they may get 'trapped' if the 'COVID status' of the destination changes whilst they are there or if they test positive for COVID-19 and have to isolate," she said.

Gayle Allard, professor of economic environment and country analysis at IE University, Madrid, said: "Tourism in Europe is experiencing another difficult year thanks to the spread of new variants of COVID-19. Some European economies are not only the world's most visited countries but are also heavily dependent on tourism. It is close to 15 percent of Spain's GDP, for instance. This is bad news for European economies.

"However, although data are not yet available, there are signs that domestic tourism is making up for some of the loss of foreign travelers. Europeans whose savings rose during quarantine are traveling more widely in their home countries this summer."

'Traffic light' confusion

The UK government's "traffic light" system for foreign travel had also come under criticism from the industry, with many observers saying it did more harm than good.

Earlier this year, the WTTC said, "This system is causing confusion among travelers, and it bases risk on the country and not on the individual traveler, which is unfair as whole nations do not have COVID."

The council had also called on the government to scrap the "ineffective system" and allow fully vaccinated Britons to travel freely, with unvaccinated travelers able to travel via fast and affordable testing.