日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
World
Home / World / Americas

Could tariffs lead to?'Thucydides Trap'?

By ZHANG RUINAN in Boston | China Daily USA | Updated: 2018-07-19 22:01
Share
Share - WeChat
Graham Allison, professor at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School in his office during an interview with China Daily on Tuesday in Boston. Gao Tianpei/ China Daily

The trade conflict heating up between China and the US can be dangerous, leading the two nations to slip into a "Thucydides Trap", Harvard professor Graham Allison said in an interview with China Daily on Tuesday.

To avoid it, the two nations should first recognize how dangerous falling into the trap might be and then find a new form of great-power relations to avoid it, said the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015).

Allison said a tariff war between the world's largest economy and its next largest could do serious damage to both. But economic damage from a trade war is not the most significant risk posed by current trends, he said.

In his book he coined the catchphrase "Thucydides Trap", which is the notion that when a rising power challenges an established one, conflict may ensue.

He outlines that in the past 500 years, there were 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to topple a ruling power from its position of predominance. Twelve of those cases led to war.

"In this process of tit-for-tat, (trade conflicts) could escalate into more and more dangerous territory," Allison said, explaining that in the lens of this dynamic, misperceptions are magnified, miscalculations multiplied and risks of escalation amplified.

"If we study history, the case of Japan, which was rising in the 1930s, rivaling the US, which was the predominant power in the western Pacific and maintained an open-door policy," said Allison.

"As Japan grew stronger, the US said no, you have to stop this expansion. So initially, the US imposed economic tariffs, and then an embargo on exports of high-grade scrap iron and aviation fuel to Japan. And finally, in 1940, an embargo on oil, which the Japanese believed would strangle them slowly," Allison said.

"Under those conditions, they concluded that it was better to attack America.

"So, I'm really worried about the trade conflict, for the way that it could be escalated as well as the economic impact in the meantime," he said. "But even worse than the economic impact would be if it should become part of the fuel that produces fire."

Allison said that over the past four decades, the US viewed China as a "partner" or "strategic partner."

But the Trump administration and Washington now publicly call China a "strategic rival" or "adversary", which shows a fundamental shift in the way Washington thinks about China and how the US should relate to it.

"That (shift) in this Thucydides dynamic, makes it even more dangerous," Allison said.

"In this dynamic, we should ask the question President Xi asked, which is how to escape the 'Thucydides Trap', that's the right question to ask," Allison said.

"The first step to escaping the 'Thucydides Trap' is to recognize the trap and how dangerous it is if we slip into the trap," Allison suggested.

"Then secondly, is how can we find a way to escape the trap; President Xi's idea is we should have a new form of great-power relations, I think this is a great idea.

"Now we have to construct all the elements of the new form," Allison said.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1994 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 成人激情视频在线播放 | 亚洲四虎影院 | 国产精品8 | 国产精品欧美综合 | 亚洲黄色大片 | 久久久在线免费观看 | 超碰人人人人人人人 | 日韩成人动漫 | 神马影院一区二区三区 | 亚洲国产日韩一区 | 亚洲精品一区二区三区中文字幕 | 天堂av一区二区三区 | 日本欧美一区二区三区 | 99免费观看视频 | 夜夜撸网站 | 亚洲综合不卡 | 欧美精品黄色 | 久久只有这里有精品 | 97超碰站 | 全部免费毛片在线播放 | 日韩色网 | 精品久久久久一区二区 | 国产一区二区高清视频 | 国产在线看片 | 国产三级高清 | 97视频在线观看免费 | 人人草网站 | 在线观看黄色 | 午夜看看 | 99精品毛片 | 深夜福利在线播放 | 日韩av在线播放观看 | 日本中出视频 | 成人一区二区三区视频 | 男人网站在线 | 黄色福利 | 天堂在线视频 | 一区二区三区在线视频观看 | 九九在线精品视频 | 国产精品欧美一区二区三区 | 国产专区在线播放 |