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Immediately after the US imposed 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion of imports from China, China retaliated in kind. While the impact of these moves will be modest, the big worry is on escalating trade tensions. Indeed, added uncertainty is already dampening business confidence and delaying investment internationally. A statement by China's Ministry of Commerce strongly criticized the US move and vowed retaliation, but otherwise indicated restraint and continued commitment to reform and globalization. In our view, such restraint, as part of a strategy to assume global leadership, may limit the global economic damage of a trade war between the US and China.

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