Chow Pak-chin notes the rapid demise of the move by an ancient region of Spain to break away; how much less viable is 'full autonomy' for HK?

Whatever the outcome, the Catalan independence referendum - held on Oct 1 - has created sufficient fodder to feed the frenzy of advocates for "Hong Kong independence". The self-proclaimed "pro-democracy" political party Demosisto was quick to issue a public statement calling the achievement of autonomy via democratic means a "basic civilian right", while hinting at a Hong Kong equivalent of the Catalan independence referendum, despite such a vote's illegality.

One can't help but lament the idealistic naivety of the pro-independence individuals both in Catalonia and Hong Kong in this context. Interestingly enough, a friend of mine has recently been to Catalonia. To his surprise, there was not a landslide support for the independence of this distinct Spanish region with its own language and a recorded history of more than 1,000 years. Most Catalans, it turns out, are deeply concerned about the region's national security, financial and economic development and foreign diplomacy should it declare independence. A public survey commissioned by the Catalan government in July showed just 41 percent of residents in favor; 49 percent opposed independence.

The opposing camp's apprehension is understandable. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has already expressed his disapproval of Catalan independence, as it may set precedents to other regions while rendering the region itself more difficult to govern. More importantly, once Catalonia splits from Spain, it will cease to be part of the European Union. With two-thirds of its foreign exports going to the EU and 52 billion euros ($61.56 billion) out of its 77 billion euro public debt owed to the Spanish government, Catalonia doesn't look as if it will be in a good place, financially speaking, if it declares independence and leaves the EU. Not to mention its reapplication for EU membership will need to be agreed by all EU members, including Spain. With all these uncertainties looming large, it is not surprising that the third- and fifth-largest Spanish banks have decided to relocate out of Catalonia, while the country's biopharmaceutical company Oryzon Genomics announced its relocation from Barcelona to Madrid, becoming the first - but definitely not the last - corporation to leave Catalonia for good. In terms of what the future holds for an independent Catalonia, so far, so bad.

If a future as an independent state looks so bleak for even a Spanish region with more than 1,000 years of recorded history, then in the context of Hong Kong, it is a non-starter. To begin with, since 2,300 years ago, in the Qin Dynasty (221-206 BC), Hong Kong has already been geographically and administratively part of China, and that's not to mention the cultural, linguistic and even culinary heritage Hong Kong has inherited from the Chinese mainland. What the over-zealous independence enthusiasts and advocates seem to have forgotten is that in appealing for independence, the city will need to secure sufficient international support. In the case of Catalonia, its appeal for independence, backed by the referendum, has yet to receive widespread international support: not from the EU, neither from United States President Donald Trump, who was quoted as saying: "Spain is a great, great country and it should remain united I really think the people of Catalonia would stay with Spain. I think it would be foolish not to." Perhaps unbeknown to the political activists who make frequent public or clandestine visits to Britain and the US to rally support for their cause of an independent Hong Kong, not one country would want to risk the wrath of China, the rising new power that has reshuffled the world order, by sticking its fingers into issues pertaining to its governance policy of "one country, two systems".

A clash of globalization with rising nationalism, the phenomenon of independence referendum has taken different shapes in places from Scotland (seeking to leave the United Kingdom) to Britain's exit from the EU. Drowned in impassioned appeal, many pro-independence or pro-exit individuals would later admit to being half-baked about the consequences of their vote. What's crucial for Hong Kong people to understand is our lack of readiness and self-sufficiency for independent status. Do we even have the means for national defense, or the drive for economic development once we lose the backup of the mainland? What's more crucial for Hong Kong citizens to understand is the unconstitutional and unlawful nature of "Hong Kong independence", thus there is no need and no room for discussion.

(HK Edition 11/24/2017 page12)